{"id":834,"date":"2026-07-28T12:05:45","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T12:05:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=834"},"modified":"2026-07-28T12:05:45","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T12:05:45","slug":"its-not-the-left-rising-its-the-center-falling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=834","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s not the left rising. It\u2019s the center falling."},"content":{"rendered":"
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Welcome to the first edition of The Midterms, Actually. Every week I\u2019ll be writing about two things: one thing I\u2019m thinking about <\/strong>\u2014 a big idea or trend I see forming across the 2026 primaries \u2014 and one thing I\u2019m hearing<\/strong>, from a voice on the ground. You can sign up here to get it in your inbox every week. Let\u2019s get into it.<\/p>\n

Read more The right says \u201csuicidal empathy\u201d is destroying the West. Here\u2019s the truth.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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One big idea<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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There are two ways of looking at the current divides within the Democratic Party. The first \u2014 and more dominant \u2014 narrative is that the party\u2019s left wing is on an upward march, one that began with New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani\u2019s election in 2025 and has continued through this year\u2019s Democratic primary season.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The second, and I believe more accurate, explanation is that the party is rudderless \u2014 an ideological fight to be settled in the next presidential election \u2014 and that the left\u2019s success in New York City, Colorado, and even Maine (before Graham Platner\u2019s campaign collapsed) grows out of a void left by a bigger, less-talked-about story: an establishment in free fall, on the wrong side of fundamental shifts across its own rank-and-file base.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The difference between those interpretations is fine, but important. I don\u2019t think the Democratic base agrees with every position articulated by successful left-wing candidates \u2014 like \u201call deportations are wrong\u201d (as NYC\u2019s Darializa Avila Chevalier told me) \u2014 or have suddenly become committed democratic socialists. But I do think the left is on the right side of the gateway issues the base is currently prioritizing: a working-class-led affordability agenda, a skepticism of artificial intelligence, and a moral opposition to President Donald Trump\u2019s war against Iran and to Israel\u2019s campaigns of violence in Lebanon and Gaza. Those issues, more than any others, have defined the Democratic Party\u2019s internal battles since 2024.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Progressives have also benefited from a moderate wing that, in many cases, has yet to lay out an affirmative vision. After the signature policies of the Biden administration flopped as political motivators, the center has seemed frozen in time, unable to offer its own blueprint for the electorate\u2019s concerns (\u201cabundance\u201d aside). When I sat down with Third Way president Jon Cowan, he had no trouble assailing Hasan Piker, Abdul El-Sayed, or any number of the party\u2019s most prominent progressive figures. But when I asked whether Third Way was actually responding to the clear shifts among the electorate \u2014 on Medicare-for-all, on abolishing ICE, on foreign aid to Israel \u2014 his answer was far less sure.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Cowan on America, Actually<\/em>:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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We\u2019ve never said that there\u2019s a problem with Hasan Piker because he advocates for Medicare-for-all. \u2026 I think Medicare-for-all is still very problematic as a political issue, and if someone were nominated for president on the Democratic ticket and they were for Medicare-for-all, I think it would be a major barrier to getting elected. But that\u2019s not our beef with Hasan Piker at all.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

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It was the same evasion whenever the conversation turned from the messengers to the message. In a recent interview with US Rep. Jim Clyburn \u2014 the powerful South Carolina Democrat who has endorsed US Rep. Haley Stevens\u2019s Senate run in Michigan \u2014 he bluntly defended insider politics, insisting party leadership was not at fault for the 2024 result. The blame, he told me, belonged to the Black voters who hadn\u2019t turned out for Kamala Harris.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Clyburn on America, Actually:<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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When the white vote turned out 71 percent two years ago, and the Black vote turned out 59 percent, you tell me whose fault that is. \u2026 If that 59 percent had been 69 percent, she would\u2019ve won.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n

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When I asked him directly whether the argument was that Black voters had let Harris down, he didn\u2019t hesitate: \u201cIn many instances, absolutely.\u201d It is a remarkable thing to hear from a member of leadership \u2014 the base failed us, not the other way around \u2014 and it is exactly the instinct that has the establishment on its back foot.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This is why I think it matters to read the Democratic Party\u2019s post-2024 convulsion as a story of establishment collapse rather than left-wing ascension. Stevens, Clyburn, and the party\u2019s leadership would prefer to make this a referendum on the left \u2014 on the acceptability of its candidates and its media figures. But the base is communicating something else: a lack of confidence in the center, and in a version of establishment politics that prizes seniority and loyalty over voters\u2019 values. Establishment collapse also explains the Democratic results that don\u2019t fit neatly on the moderate vs. progressive binary: like Attorney General Phil Weiser\u2019s victory in Colorado or whatever is happening in the Wisconsin governor\u2019s race.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The center\u2019s other problem is that its core general-election pitch \u2014 we may not thrill you, but we\u2019re not Trump \u2014 is losing relevance the weaker that Trump looks politically. I spent a night at Trump\u2019s UFC event on the White House lawn in June, an evening engineered to speak to the young men who broke his way in 2024, and found plenty of them cooling. \u201cHe was promising lower prices on everything,\u201d one told me. \u201cWe didn\u2019t know wars were gonna start.\u201d Even the MAGA operative Jack Posobiec conceded that \u201cthe numbers are softer today, there\u2019s no question about that.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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When the opposition\u2019s own coalition is cracking, branding yourself as an inoffensive vessel who can gather up the most anti-Trump voters looks less compelling. The establishment needs an affirmative reason to be chosen \u2014 and it hasn\u2019t found one.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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So here\u2019s my amendment to the narrative of the moment: The story isn\u2019t a left-wing party discovering its confidence. It\u2019s an establishment losing its own \u2014 and a base voting, in New York, in Colorado, and soon in Michigan and Wisconsin, on how much faith it still has that the center will name what it actually wants and fight for it.<\/p>\n

Read more The worst year for measles in a generation<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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What I\u2019m hearing<\/strong>: A Michigan reporter\u2019s take on the Democratic Senate race<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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I reached out to Samuel Robinson, a reporter for the state\u2019s oldest Black newspaper, the Michigan Chronicle; he also has a Substack, Detroit One Million. Robinson is based on Detroit\u2019s east side, and he\u2019s someone I\u2019ve known for a while, as we\u2019re both members of the National Association of Black Journalists.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Both the Democrats\u2019 moderate and progressive wings have invested so much in the state \u2014 it\u2019s become <\/strong>the<\/em><\/strong> proxy war in the party\u2019s fight over its future. What is it about Michigan that you think has made the stakes so high? <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Stakes are high because of the control of Congress. But also, Michigan is like a microcosm of America. It swings back and forth every four, eight years. But our US Senate seats have been held by Democrats since 1992. Republicans say they\u2019re going to spend a ton of money to flip the seat being opened by Gary Peters retiring. Women moderates (Dana Nessel, Gretchen Whitmer, Jocelyn Benson) won big in 2018, and eight years later, all three to some degree have disappointed their own voters. Dems had a legislative trifecta from 2022 to 2024, and many people feel like Dems let down Black residents who got them elected in the first place.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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That\u2019s one thing that unites the Black progressives and the Black establishment: Members in both camps feel the Democratic Party hasn\u2019t done enough.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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How would you describe the difference between a Haley Stevens supporter and an Abdul El-Sayed supporter? <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Haley supporter \u2014 usually older; the young people I\u2019ve met who support her typically come from wealthier backgrounds. Haley supporters are usually not involved in politics or people who keep up with national discourse. Haley supporters are worried about the gutting of the Voting Rights Act. They are worried about Trump nationalizing elections or not leaving the White House after \u201928.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Abdul supporter \u2014 usually younger; the older people I\u2019ve met who support him often acknowledge they are in the minority of their peers. The younger people who support him are all over the place in terms of their backgrounds \u2014 rich, poor, highly educated, no college. He has the support of most young people under 35. They are mostly worried about sending American taxpayer dollars to Israel, and the influence of AIPAC. I hear more about that than I do Medicare-for-all.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Stevens has sought to capitalize on El-Sayed\u2019s perceived weakness with the Black vote. How real do you think that vulnerability is? <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Abdul struggles with certain Black voters mostly because they don\u2019t know who he is. I\u2019ve heard from countless people who have said something to the degree of, \u201cI don\u2019t know enough about him.\u201d He received media attention as the Detroit and Wayne County health director, but not enough for people to feel it. Most people know that he ran for governor in 2018 with no experience. People see Haley Stevens ads and mailers. Most Black voters aren\u2019t on Twitter.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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I saw <\/strong>this post on X<\/strong> where you were talking to a Stevens supporter who expressed some pretty bigoted claims about El-Sayed\u2019s candidacy. How widespread is that sentiment? When I was reporting on Mamdani\u2019s election in New York City, it was clear that there was anxiety among the Black political class that the rise of Asian, Latino, Muslim communities could displace them. Is that fear at play here? <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The race is definitely a tension point between Wayne County\u2019s Black and Muslim population. Many who have shared with me similar sentiments will point to the anti-Black racism and exploitation of our community at the hands of Arab gas station and liquor store owners. That resentment builds up and then bubbles over in a race like this. We certainly live amongst each other, like off Seven Mile on the east side, where Bengali families and Black families live side by side as next-door neighbors. But there\u2019s a resentment that goes both ways.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Midterms, Actually is a new weekly newsletter from Astead Herndon. Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Tuesday. <\/em><\/p>\n

Read more Meta glasses are killing the vibe<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

See More:<\/span><\/p>\n
    \n
  • America, Actually<\/li>\n
  • Congress<\/li>\n
  • Midterm Elections 2026<\/li>\n
  • Politics<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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