{"id":741,"date":"2026-07-17T16:08:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T16:08:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=741"},"modified":"2026-07-17T16:08:56","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T16:08:56","slug":"the-gop-nomination-is-vances-to-lose-and-he-might-lose-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=741","title":{"rendered":"The GOP nomination is Vance\u2019s to lose. And he might lose it."},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>On a recent episode of <em>Today, Explained<\/em>, I explored Donald Trump\u2019s ongoing succession wars, and whether the president that\u2019s upended the Republican Party is taking an active role in deciding who might replace him.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=739\">Spoiler! How prediction markets broke reality TV.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The short version: The race to inherit MAGA, already underway, runs through Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Trump has every incentive to keep everyone guessing about how it ends.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>As a guest host of <em>Today, Explained<\/em>, I talked to my former colleague, New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman, who has covered Trump for years, and recently released a new book, <em>Regime Change<\/em>: <em>Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump<\/em>, which she co-wrote with Times reporter Jonathan Swan.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Here are three things that stuck out:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2><strong>1. It\u2019s Vance\u2019s to lose \u2014 but it\u2019s not a given<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\u201cVance is the presumptive frontrunner right now, and it\u2019s hard for me to see who else that could be,\u201d Haberman said. Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., and the Turning Point network have all signaled they\u2019re lining up behind the vice president as Trump\u2019s heir. Rubio has gone as far as telling Vanity Fair that if Vance runs, \u201che\u2019s going to be our nominee, and I\u2019ll be one of the first people to support him.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>But being the frontrunner isn\u2019t the same as having been anointed. <em>Regime Change<\/em> lays out real fault lines between Trump and his vice president; over the Iran strikes and the Epstein files, Vance repeatedly landed on the opposite side of the president. On the decision to go to war, Haberman reported, Vance \u201cwas the only one who really argued forcefully with the president,\u201d and \u201cit cost him with Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>That offense could be remembered when the next Republican primary arrives.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2><strong>2. Trump plans to stick around<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>The biggest obstacle to a clean handoff may be that Trump doesn\u2019t want one. \u201cTrump doesn\u2019t want to cede the stage to anybody,\u201d Haberman said. \u201cThe second that he anoints somebody or backs somebody or whatever, the clock starts ticking on his own relevance.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>And there\u2019s nothing in his history, she added, to suggest he\u2019ll ride quietly into retirement: \u201cThere is nothing in his history that suggests that he\u2019s just going to go off and do paintings like George W. Bush.\u201d Whoever wins the Republican nomination in 2028 should expect Trump to still be standing next to them \u2014 and still expecting credit.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=737\">She could be America\u2019s first socialist governor<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h2><strong>3. Trump still dangles Rubio over Vance<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Even with the field seemingly settled, Trump keeps reminding Vance that it isn\u2019t. The most vivid scene in <em>Regime Change<\/em> comes from an October dinner in the White House Blue Room, with Rupert Murdoch and News Corp. executives at the table alongside the Vances and Rubio. Trump turned to Murdoch and asked what he thought of JD. \u201cJD has the potential to be great,\u201d Murdoch offered \u2014 a pointed answer from a man who had tried to talk Trump out of picking Vance in the first place. \u201cThanks a lot, Rupert,\u201d Vance said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Then Trump asked, \u201cWell, what about Marco?\u201d Murdoch\u2019s reply, according to Haberman: \u201cMarco is brilliant.\u201d After that, Haberman says, the table got \u201cuncomfortable.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>There\u2019s no evidence Rubio is actually running \u2014 \u201cquite the opposite,\u201d Haberman said. But Trump has always pitted rivals against each other, and by Haberman\u2019s account, he simply has better personal chemistry with Rubio than with Vance \u2014 a striking turn given the \u201cLittle Marco\u201d cruelty of 2016.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>So will Vance get the endorsement he needs? \u201cI think anybody who is counting on Donald Trump\u2019s anything often ends up pretty disappointed,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><em>There\u2019s much more in the full podcast, so listen to <\/em>Today, Explained<em> wherever you get podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Pandora, and Spotify.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=735\">Don\u2019t give up vegetables because of the diarrhea parasite<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><span>See More<!-- -->:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Podcasts<\/li>\n<li>Politics<\/li>\n<li>Today, Explained podcast<\/li>\n<li>Trump Administration<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Where things stand in the competition between JD Vance and Marco Rubio to replace Donald Trump as the GOP presidential nominee.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":740,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The GOP nomination is Vance\u2019s to lose. 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