{"id":550,"date":"2026-07-01T11:06:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T11:06:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=550"},"modified":"2026-07-01T11:06:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T11:06:41","slug":"who-is-actually-ruling-iran-right-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=550","title":{"rendered":"Who is actually ruling Iran right now?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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For 36 years, the question of who ultimately ruled Iran had one answer: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While Iran has an elected president and legislature, that power is subordinate to the religious supreme leader, who has the last say over all foreign and domestic policies and is the commander in chief of Iran\u2019s conventional military and the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard Corps. Whenever the US confronted Iran, American policymakers knew it was Khamenei who would make the final decision.<\/p>\n

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They\u2019re no longer so sure, however. Joint US-Israeli airstrikes on the first day of the war four months ended Khamenei\u2019s rule, and on July 4, the former supreme leader will be given a public funeral in Tehran. And while the Ayatollah\u2019s second son Mojtaba Khamenei formally succeeded his father as supreme leader on March 4, he has not been seen in public since, reportedly still recovering from severe and disfiguring injuries to his legs and face suffered in the same airstrike that killed his father on February 28. No videos, audio recordings, or current photographs have been issued since then \u2014 only written statements read by the anchors on state television or posted on his Telegram channel. Iranian TV networks have even resorted to airing AI-generated videos of him giving speeches.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Just how disabled Mojtaba Khamenei remains is unknown. US officials believe that Khamenei is actually alive and participating in decision-making but if he does not make some sort of appearance for his father\u2019s funeral, it\u2019s going to start to raise questions: Can anyone truly fill the Ayatollah shoes? Could the troubled transition from father to son lead to an Iran that is simultaneously less overtly religious but more nationalistic and authoritarian than before? And most importantly: Who actually rules Iran today?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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A system of rivals<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The unique setup of the Iranian regime \u2014 civilian leaders, but a mullah who holds ultimate power \u2014 has been a complicating factor in previous rounds of diplomatic negotiations with the United States. Even when \u201cmoderates\u201d who favored better relations with the West were in power, any decision had to be signed off by the supreme leader, whose real views were not always immediately apparent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Nothing has changed in the transition from father to son about the formal powers Iran\u2019s supreme leader holds. But while Khamenei has been taking some part in the current US-Iran ceasefire talks including authorizing negotiators to carry out direct talks with the Americans last month in a published statement and periodically weighing in on particular negotiating points, he does not yet appear to be taking as active a role as his father did in similar situations. \u201cThere is evidence that the power that the supreme leader exercises has diminished significantly,\u201d said Hussein Banai, expert on Iranian politics and professor at Indiana University Bloomington, said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Specifically, he noted that the supreme leader normally plays a \u201ccentral headquarters\u201d role, getting all of the regime\u2019s factions on the same page voicing a unified message. Iran\u2019s politics has never been wholly unified: There are multiple centers of power, including the religious establishment, the elected government, and the military, as well as competing factions within those centers. But when the supreme leader weighed in, everyone aligned their message with his.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Whatever Mojtaba Khamenei\u2019s current condition, that seems to be conspicuously absent now. \u201cThe president says what he wants, the speaker says what he wants,\u201d Banai said. \u201cThere isn\u2019t any coordination.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Combined with the sheer number of senior figures who were killed by airstrikes, there\u2019s something of a power vacuum in Tehran right now.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cEveryone is fighting for their relevance in this next iteration of the Islamic Republic,\u201d said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East program at Chatham House.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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On the civilian side of the regime, there\u2019s President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate who took power in 2024 after his predecessor was killed in a plane crash. While formally the second most powerful leader in Iran, Pezeshkian saw his power and influence curtailed during the war. As an advocate for diplomacy, his position could improve if the talks actually deliver economic relief for Iranians.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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More prominent in public in recent weeks has been Mohammed Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, who led the delegations conducting negotiations with the United States and appears frequently in the media to explain the government\u2019s positions. As a publicity-hungy conservative populist known as a perennial presidential candidate and implicated in some shady real estate deals, Ghalibaf may have found his calling as the Iranian government\u2019s point of contact with the Trump administration. More than any other figure in the regime, he\u2019s seen his public and international profile rise as a result of the war.<\/p>\n

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But the degree to which the civilians can actually speak for the Iranian regime as a whole in these talks is perhaps Iran\u2019s single biggest question after Mojtaba Khamenei\u2019s real status. On the military side, the most significant ascending figure may be Ahmad Vahidi, commander in chief of the revolutionary guard, who has frequently overruled the moderates seeking a quick deal to end the war. According to reporting by the Wall Street Journal, it was Vahidi who pushed for Iran to launch new missile strikes in June, despite concerns it would imperil the ongoing ceasefire negotiations with the US. Vahidi is under US sanctions for the regime\u2019s crackdowns on protests and wanted by interpol for his alleged role in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina. But he\u2019s not always averse to cutting deals with Americans: He reportedly took part in the talks with the Reagan administration in the 1980s that became known in the US as Iran-Contra.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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With various voices and factions jockeying for influence, the question is just who is actually in charge of the Iranian system. \u201cThe system is in control of the system,\u201d Vakil said. \u201cI know we all want to think that there\u2019s one individual that has power or authority. There\u2019s no one commander in chief. It is a system that is commanding collectively for the time being.\u201d All this could add up to a far more unpredictable Iran going forward.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Iran\u2019s new leaders are \u201cmuch more reasonable\u201d than their predecessors and top US officials claim to be developing productive relationships with their Iranian counterparts. But the Iranian leadership has also repeatedly shown in recent weeks that it is willing to risk blowing up the talks by using force when it feels its red lines are being crossed, whether that\u2019s Israel\u2019s incursions into Lebanon or threats to Tehran\u2019s control of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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What will the new Iranian regime look like? <\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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At some point, the world will get more clarity on Mojtaba Khamenei\u2019s real role, and a new system will click into place. When the power struggles shake out, that regime will probably be not any more democratic than Iran under the Ayatollah and certainly no more inclined to trust the United States. But it is possible that an Iran will emerge that is less ideological, religious, and revolutionary \u2014 and yet potentially more aggressive \u2014 than what we\u2019ve seen since 1979.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In a recent article in Foreign Affairs, the Iranian-American scholars Narges Bajoghli and Vali Nasr argued that Iran\u2019s more \u201ctechnocratic\u201d new leaders, many of whom came of age during the brutal Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s rather than the anti-Shah resistance of the 1970s, may be more willing to engage in direct talks with the US than the more ideological cohort led by Ali Khamenei, but may be even more to risk force.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Bigger changes could come on the domestic side. Iran\u2019s famously strict religious laws were already loosening a bit before the war. Though wearing a hijab is still legally required for Iranian women, the law is less enforced and many more women have been going without the headscarf since \u201cwoman, life, freedom\u201d protests in 2022. Some experts expect Iran\u2019s government, particularly if the supreme leader is ultimately playing a muted role, to promote a more secular form of authoritarian nationalism. That may already be underway \u2014 the sight of partially or even unveiled women at pro-regime rallies was one of the more surprising developments of this war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Vakil said that the government is likely to continue to point to religion as a justification for its policies, but in a moment of crisis and instability the regime will have to choose its battles, which may mean \u201ctolerating women walking around wearing whatever they want.\u201d What it will not mean, given the hardline positions men like Ghalibaf and Vahidi have taken during previous mass protests, is tolerating dissent or opposition to the political system itself. The hopes, expressed by US and Israeli leaders at the outset of this war, that it would spark a public uprising or fracturing of the regime, have obviously not come to pass.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The revolution is now nearly 50 years old, and change was coming to Iran eventually, whether the war happened or not. It was already clear in the last years of Ali Khamenei\u2019s life that the system he led was under stress from economic stagnation, international isolation, and public discontent from a population, the majority of whom have no memory of the 1979 revolution. The transition to his successor was expected to be a test of whether the regime could reform itself to survive another generation. Thanks to US and Israeli airstrikes, that transition is happening on an accelerated timeline.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The regime has shown it can survive \u201a and arguably win \u2014 a war with much more powerful adversaries. But a population desperate for a return to normalcy may not get it for some time, given the uncertain state of the ceasefire. Domestic divisions and rivalries that were suppressed during wartime may reemerge now that the fighting has mostly stopped.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Right now, many Iranians are wondering whether Mojtaba Khamenei is actually in any shape to perform the role his father played for 36 years. But the bigger question may be whether, in Iran\u2019s new political reality, that role will even exist much longer.<\/p>\n

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