{"id":463,"date":"2026-06-23T11:05:27","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T11:05:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=463"},"modified":"2026-06-23T11:05:27","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T11:05:27","slug":"will-britains-next-prime-minister-reverse-brexit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanlivingreport.com\/?p=463","title":{"rendered":"Will Britain\u2019s next prime minister reverse Brexit?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This was already going to be a week of reflection on the legacy of Brexit. The referendum in which British voters shocked the world by narrowly opting to leave the European Union took place ten years ago this Tuesday. But it\u2019s become more of a live issue with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer\u2019s announcement that he is stepping down, setting up a contest within the ruling Labour party to succeed him.<\/p>\n

Read more The World Cup is showing what Trump can\u2019t destroy about America<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Starmer was elected in a landslide just two years ago, but his approval ratings are now more than 50 points underwater. There are a number of reasons for that, including sluggish economic growth, several damaging policy U-turns, and the controversial appointment of Jeffrey Epstein crony Peter Mandelson. But given that Starmer is Britain\u2019s sixth prime minister in the past 10 years, it\u2019s hard to avoid the impression that it\u2019s become nearly impossible for anyone to govern the country successfully in the post-Brexit era. Every prime minister since the referendum has struggled either with figuring out how to implement Brexit or how to cope with the mostly disappointing economic and social results of it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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So, it\u2019s not that surprising to see that many in the country are looking to turn the page on this era. Fifty-five percent of Britons favor returning to full membership in the EU, according to a recent YouGov poll. Perhaps, more notably, a recent European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) poll found that 63 percent favored closer economic relations with the EU, even if it meant accepting the freedom of movement of people between Britain and the continent \u2014 notable given how central arguments about border security were to the original case for Brexit and how the backlash to immigration has fueled the rise of the far-right Reform UK party.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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While Starmer, though an opponent of Brexit, argued that there was no going back and that the Labour-led government had to make the best of it, Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Manchester, who is considered the front-runner to replace him, has said he would like to see the UK rejoin the EU in his lifetime \u2014 though he has also pledged not to \u201cre-run\u201d the debates over Brexit. Another top contender for the job, former health secretary Wes Streeting, also called for the UK to rejoin. A top Treasury official recently told Parliament that a return to membership was \u201can inevitability.\u201d London Mayor Sadiq Khan has called for rejoining to be included in the Labour Party\u2019s next election manifesto.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The idea is broadly popular on the other side of the Channel, too. Two thirds of EU citizens back the UK rejoining, according to the ECFR poll. Several European leaders have expressed support, as well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Call it \u201cBreenter,\u201d \u201cBrejoin,\u201d or \u201cBreturn\u201d (there\u2019s some debate about this). There\u2019s clearly growing desire, or at least curiosity, about the idea of unwinding Brexit. But returning to the before times is probably easier said than done.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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A disappointing decade<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Polls show that strong majorities, even including supporters of the far-right Euroskeptic Reform UK, believe Brexit has had a negative impact on the country\u2019s economy and their own finances. For a long time, it was difficult to disentangle the economic impact of Brexit from other recent shocks, including the COVID pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the picture is starting to get clearer. A recent Bank of England study estimated that the country\u2019s GDP is between six and eight percent lower than it would have been if the UK had remained in the EU.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The impact is visible across the British economy: Productivity of British businesses and the scale of investment in the country are both down, and the rise in living standards since 2016 has been weak, relative to other nations. Ten years ago, Brexit supporters raised the specter of \u201cPolish plumbers\u201d stealing British jobs. Today, Poland looks like it could be wealthier than the UK in a few years. As for \u201ctaking back control\u201d of the country\u2019s borders, irregular migration to the UK has actually increased over the past decade.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Then, there\u2019s the Trump factor. The US president supported Britain leaving back in 2016 and even once dubbed himself \u201cMr. Brexit.\u201d During the referendum, advocates argued that leaving the EU would allow London to negotiate its own, more beneficial, free trade agreement with the United States. But talks over an agreement stalled. Last year\u2019s \u201cEconomic Prosperity Deal\u201d rolled back some of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, but it falls far short of the comprehensive trade deal that was promised and was never ratified by Congress. That means the deal could be rolled back, either by this president or the next one.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Moreover, the often predatory approach this US administration has taken toward its allies has made the idea of the UK pooling its negotiating leverage with the EU seem more appealing than it did in 2016. That may become even more the case with emerging questions over the regulation of, and access to, cutting edge US-developed AI models. And efforts to bolster Europe\u2019s military capacity and coordination in the wake of both Vladimir Putin\u2019s Ukraine invasion and Trump\u2019s undermining of NATO have been hampered by the fact that the UK and European countries are no longer part of one bloc. Taken together, EU membership may look a lot more appealing today to the Britons who voted and campaigned against it 10 years ago.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Reality check: This isn\u2019t happening any time soon<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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As a recent report from the , rejoining would likely require another mandate from the public. This could entail yet another referendum or a party \u2014 presumably Labour \u2014 running in a general election on a return platform. (Starmer\u2019s successor will be chosen only by his party. The next general election isn\u2019t scheduled until 2029, though the next prime minister could call one sooner.)<\/p>\n

Read more Trump\u2019s Reflecting Pool debacle deepens<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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As Burnham\u2019s comments indicated, given how bruising and divisive the Brexit fight was last time around, it\u2019s far from clear whether the next prime minister \u2014 even if he or she supports returning to full membership \u2014 would want to use all their political capital on relitigating it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe, said it\u2019s difficult to imagine this happening without a \u201ccatastrophe\u201d of some sort forcing the issue.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cIf Labour are heading into the next election looking like they\u2019re going to get slaughtered, they might think they need a roll of the dice to reunite the progressives,\u201d he said. \u201cOr if Donald Trump sends troops into Greenland, all bets are off.\u201d (Indeed, Trump\u2019s threat to Greenland is one reason why long-resistant Iceland is now moving quickly toward EU membership.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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If the UK did apply, there\u2019s a formal, tried-and-true process by which countries apply for EU membership and their candidacies are assessed. Unlike some other prospective members, the UK, a member until recently, presumably wouldn\u2019t have much trouble meeting criteria for rule of law, human rights, or economic openness.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But even so, the Union Jack almost certainly won\u2019t be flying in Brussels again any time soon. The fastest accession process (Finland\u2019s) took about three years. Britain\u2019s candidacy would probably be dragged out longer, in part because European governments would want to be sure they really mean it this time. The rising political fortune of Nigel Farage\u2019s Reform UK raises the prospect that a far-right British government could pull out of whatever deal a Labour one had negotiated. Britain\u2019s membership would have to be approved by the parliaments of the other member states, and some countries, like France, would have to hold referendums of their own. It would take a while.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cCountries have very different views of Britain,\u201d said Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe. \u201cThere are those that still think that the EU is better off without Britain. There are those who feel that Britain\u2019s departure has really diminished the EU. Britain\u2019s departure was very time consuming, and the wounds are still there.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Britain is also unlikely to be able to get the same bespoke membership arrangement it had before. Even as an EU member, Britain opted out of using the euro as currency, out of joining the open border \u201cSchengen area\u201d that allows for free movement between member countries, and out of a variety of other economic and agricultural regulations. As Poland\u2019s foreign minister recently put it, this time around, Britain would not get \u201c\u00e0 la carte\u201d membership.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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There are intermediate steps between the status quo and full membership that include a \u201cTurkey-style\u201d deal in which the UK would join a customs union with the EU, losing some control over its independent trade policy in the process, or a \u201cSwiss-style\u201d deal that would give the UK full access to the European market for goods and services but require accepting the free movement of people.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Whether a full return is actually \u201cinevitable,\u201d it\u2019s clear that the country\u2019s relationship with the EU is still a live issue, and that has implications not just for the UK itself but for the global economy, migration, and military competition.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Even reading about these terms may bring back some bad memories of the bruising and convoluted debate over Brexit and the long divorce talks that followed. Ultimately, though, events \u2014 including the rise of Trump, the war in Ukraine, COVID, and the emergence of AI \u2014 have changed the world, the fundamental question of just how much sovereignty Britain is willing to give up in order to access the benefits of integration with the EU still remains. The last six British prime ministers were unable to resolve that question. It\u2019s a good bet the next one won\u2019t either.<\/p>\n

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See More:<\/span><\/p>\n
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